David Dolan
Israel News Review

May 2007 Israel News Review

Winograd Report Shakes

May 2007

By David Dolan

Meanwhile Israeli military forces went back into sustained action during May as Palestinian Hamas members fired hundreds of rockets into sovereign Israeli territory, killing a woman and a man, and seriously wounding several other civilians, and causing extensive damage to areas around the volatile Gaza Strip. The unprovoked attacks prompted the unprecedented partial evacuation of the besieged town of Sderot in late May, where all of the casualties occurred, evoking jarring memories of last summer’s Hizbullah’s rocket blitz.

IDF commanders stepped up preparations for the strong possibility of another round of Hizbullah missile strikes in the coming weeks or months, along with a far more ominous armed clash with This came as American aircraft carriers and other naval forces continued to gather in the tense as media reports multiplied that a widely anticipated assault on ’s bustling nuclear facilities will likely take place before the end of this year.

OLMERT AGAINST THE WALL

Ehud Olmert—who achieved a decisive victory in Israeli national elections just over one year ago—struggled to cling to power after opinion surveys revealed that virtually no voter would support him if a new ballot were held in the coming months, as many expect to occur.  This came in the wake of the Winograd Commission’s damning conclusion that the Kadima party leader had displayed “severe leadership failure” in “hastily” deciding to go to war despite lacking a “detailed military plan.”  The report noted that the former mayor had failed to even request such a plan from senior military officers before urging his cabinet to approve a large air and ground operation last July 12^th, despite the fact that it was bound to produce sustained Hizbullah rocket assaults upon ’s northern urban areas.

Defense Minister and Labor Party leader Amir Peretz was also harshly criticized in the interim report, which only covered events leading up to the war and the first week of the 34 day conflict. The former Sderot mayor is widely expected to resign his senior cabinet post in the coming days after losing his leadership position in a May 28^th Labor party vote.  The new leader will be either former Premier Ehud Barak, who captured over 34% of the vote, or former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon, who came in second with nearly 32%.  They will face each other in a run off vote on June 11^th.  It is widely expected that the winner will quickly replace Peretz as Defense Minister, and possibly pull the party out of the Olmert government altogether, causing it to collapse. 

Former IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who already stepped down several months ago when it became apparent that he too would be harshly censured in the Winograd report, was indeed strongly rebuked for “not alerting political leaders” over the complexities that a massive military operation entailed, especially in light of the fact that he understood both Olmert and Peretz “lacked adequate knowledge and experience in these matters.”  The former Air Force commander was also criticized for “leading them to believe that the IDF was ready and prepared, and had operational plans fitting the situation.”  This last assertion deeply shocked many Israelis, who had assumed that their world renowned military forces were always prepared for any eventually in the troubled and turbulent Middle East

URGENT ACTION NEEDED

The commissioners, led by former High Court Justice Dr. Eliyahu Winograd, said they had “decided to issue an interim report” in advance of the full report, due out in July, because they ascertained that political and military leaders “had been waiting for the final report” before taking urgently needed “energetic and determined action to redress the failures” that the report uncovered. 

In other words, the government-appointed professional examiners apparently concluded that the current regional situation is too explosive to wait until July for corrective measures that would insure another pending conflict does not turn into a military disaster mirroring Israel’s near defeat in the 1973 Yom Kippur war.  By clear implication, this seems to demand the rapid replacement of both Olmert and Peretz in the halls of power.

Adding weight to this stark conclusion, PM Olmert’s pivotal role in launching last years Second Lebanon War and its ambiguous outcome was highlighted in the first four rebukes issued by the interim Winograd report.  The examiners found that the “main failure” of the conflict was the Premier’s “decision to respond” to Hizbullah’s provocative cross border raid last July 12^th “with an immediate, intensive military strike that was not based on a detailed, comprehensive and authorized military plan, nor based on careful study of the complex characteristics of the Lebanon arena.”

The commission report maintained that “the ability to achieve significant political results” from such military action was predictably “limited,” while “an Israeli military strike would inevitably lead to missiles fired at the Israeli civilian north.” It added that there “was not another effective military response to such missile attacks other than an extensive and prolonged ground operation to capture the areas from where the missiles were fired, which would have a high cost and did not enjoy broad public support.” Lashing out at Olmert directly, the commission participants further charged that these apparent “difficulties were not explicitly raised” by the Premier with his cabinet ministers “before the decision to strike was taken.”

Adding further insult to festering injury, the interim Winograd report concluded that Olmert secured cabinet endorsement for his broad military campaign by partially engaging in “ambiguity in the presentation of goals and modes of operation, so that ministers with different or even contradictory attitudes could support it. The ministers voted for a vague decision, without understanding and knowing its nature and implications.” Reflecting the deep wounds that the prolonged 1980s Lebanon conflict left in Israeli society, the report added that government ministers “authorized the commencement of a military campaign without considering how to exit it.”

In a final indictment of Olmert’s alleged failures, the commissioners concluded that “some of the declared goals of the war were not clear, and could not be achieved, and in part were not achievable by the authorized modes of military action.” In summary, Olmert launched a major military campaign that he could not adequately sustain or finish, and misled his own cabinet and the general public when he maintained that Israel would achieve a quick and decisive victory over Iranian and Syrian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia forces.

HOMEWARD

Given the damning conclusions of the interim report—which did not even cover the Premier’s widely condemned decision to let Syria off the hook for its proxy force’s sustained attacks on Israeli civilians centers, nor the final ground push in the last weekend of the war which produced over one-fourth of the IDF’s 117 casualties in just 30 hours—it was no surprise that many of Olmert’s closest friends and political advisors joined his opponents in concluding that he had to quickly leave office. This was made clear when his senior Kadima colleague, Foreign Minister Livni, demanded his resignation. Apparently responding to overnight opinion surveys that showed nearly 70% of the public wanted Olmert to call it quits, the popular minister said she had made her position “clear that he should step down” in a face to face meeting with the Premier only one day after the Winograd report was issued. However Livni denied widespread media reports that she had “given the Prime Minister an ultimatum” about the matter.

Livni acknowledged that she might have an ulterior motive in demanding Olmert’s resignation, confirming plans to become a candidate to replace him as Kadima party leader. This came despite press reports that she herself would be rebuked in the final Winograd report for having failed to point out to her cabinet colleagues that the Premier’s declared diplomatic war goals were probably unattainable.

Meanwhile earlier opinion polls that had predicted Livni might beat Likud leader Netanyahu if fresh elections are held in the coming months were reversed in the wake of the interim report’s release. Most surveys now show only around 10% of the general public would choose her for the top government post, compared to over 25% who support the former Likud prime minister. However, any new contest would definitely be a three way race, with polls predicting that either Ehud Barak or Ami Ayalon would give Netanyahu a good run for his money.

KADIMA’S DEMISE

Many Israeli political analysts said the preliminary Winograd report signals the pending collapse of the Kadima party, created by Ariel Sharon in November 2005 soon after he completed his controversial Israeli evacuation from the Gaza Strip and parts of northern Samaria. If so, Kadima will join several other “third way” middle of the road parties that have roared onto Israel’s crowded political stage like a lion, and then quickly faded into obscurity. Meanwhile Kadima’s veteran founder continues to lie in a deep coma in a Tel Aviv medical facility, while the man he adopted as his political successor—mainly because he was about the only Likud official at the time that fully backed Sharon’s unilateral withdrawal plan—is apparently soon heading out the door after an extremely short reign on the throne.

Several right-wing and religious Knesset members who strongly opposed Sharon’s Gaza-Samaria civilian evacuations noted that if Olmert is indeed prematurely forced out of office, he will join a whole series of prime ministers whose rule was cut short after they either implemented land withdrawals from portions of Israel’s ancient biblical homeland or agreed to negotiate the same.

The first leader to exit the stage prematurely was Menachem Begin, who agreed to negotiate the future of Judea and Samaria as part of the Camp David peace accords with Egypt. He subsequently abruptly resigned his high position in 1983 soon after the sudden death of his beloved wife. Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated months after negotiating the second Oslo peace accord, while his successor, Shimon Peres, lasted only a few months in power after agreeing to carry out the accord’s agreed upon withdrawals from several Palestinian towns.

Several nationalist politicians noted that the two current leading contenders to replace Ehud Olmert should he be forced to step down—Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak—were among former Israeli leaders who likewise ended up in early retirement soon after agreeing to hand over strategic territory to the PLO. However only one of them, the current Likud party and Knesset opposition leader, has stated that his agreement to bow to strong international demands for such land handovers (in his case from part of the biblical town of Hebron) was mistaken, and would not be repeated if he sits once again in the premier’s lofty chair.

HAMAS ON THE WARPATH

The apparent need for strong Israeli political leadership at this critical juncture of history was amply illustrated when armed conflict resumed with the Palestinian Hamas movement after a nearly six month lull. Hamas members fired over 250 rockets into Israeli territory in just 12 days, beginning on May 16, prompting the resumption of Israeli “targeted killings” of rocket shooters and other Palestinian militants, helicopter attacks on rocket storage facilities, and other military activity, along with wide scale arrests of leading Hamas officials, including two Palestinian Authority cabinet ministers. The radical Muslim group responded by vowing to resume suicide terror attacks inside Israeli cities and launching other hostile actions.

The violence began when Palestinian Hamas fighters attacked gunmen from the rival Fatah movement in early May, setting off a fierce round of armed clashes that bordered on full civil war. Press reports said the violence was sparked when Fatah leaders uncovered a Hamas plot to assassinate overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas during a scheduled visit to meet with Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip. PA security forces under Abbas’ control then launched raids on Hamas positions throughout the tense Gaza Strip, prompting the Islamic group to respond with an all out offensive against PLO Fatah forces. The escalating violence closed most shops, schools and businesses as intense street battles erupted everywhere.

After scores of fighters and innocent bystanders were killed on both sides of the Palestinian political divide, Hamas officials came under increasing scorn in the local Arab media for threatening the existence of the new “unity government,” formed as a direct result of Saudi Arabia and Egyptian intervention to heal the deep internal Palestinian rift. This apparently led Hamas leaders to adopt a new strategy to further weaken Abbas and his Fatah movement—attack Israel, and thereby reinforce their support from the Palestinian people.

SUFFERING SDEROT

The result was the heaviest barrage of rockets upon the town of Sderot, located just seven miles northeast of Gaza City, since Israeli military forces and over 8,000 civilians were pulled out of the entire Gaza Strip in late August 2005. Over 4,250 Palestinian Kassam rockets had already landed in and around the town of 23,000 residents since the Al Aksa attrition war began in late 2000. However the assaults mostly came in small spurts and then paused for days or even weeks, allowing for a return to some form of normalcy in between, even if Sderot residents all realized that another attack would come sooner or later. But the latest barrage has been unlike anything the town has ever experienced, with non-stop daily assaults that dumped an average of 12 rockets a day upon the town’s frightened residents.

Prime Minister Olmert told his cabinet on May 27 that the IDF has been authorized to carry on pinpoint strikes and further ground operations in portions of the Gaza Strip for an indefinite period, even if the rocket assaults die down. However he turned down a request from senior IDF commanders to be given permission to enter built up Palestinian areas in pursuit of Hamas terrorists. After security officials briefed the cabinet that Hamas now possesses longer range rockets that can accurately strike the city of Ashkelon, some 12 miles north of Gaza City, several ministers demanded that intensified action be authorized to prevent such an assault, which military analysts say would significantly widen the conflict.

Israeli leaders also decided to send a clear message to Hamas that its rocket attacks upon Israeli civilian areas will result in action elsewhere to weaken the radical group. The IDF was ordered to arrest over 30 leading Hamas figures in Judea and Samaria, including four mayors and two PA cabinet ministers. IDF helicopter attacks were also launched on areas just outside the home of PA Prime Minister Haniyeh, signaling that he might be targeted if the Kassam attacks continue. Hamas leaders responded by threatening to assassinate Israeli leaders and launch a new round of deadly terrorist atrocities inside Israeli cities.

SIZZLING SUMMER AHEAD

Several Israeli Mideast specialists speculated that Iran and Syria may have ordered their Hamas ally to step up armed assaults upon Western-backed Fatah forces and then Israel in order to send a warning message to Washington, London and other world capitals that any assault upon Iran’s fast moving nuclear program would result in widespread Mideast chaos. Some added that armed clashes north of Beirut during the month, where Al Qaida-linked Palestinian fighters resisted Lebanese government attempts to disarm them, was likely a part of the same harrowing picture. On top of this, US President George Bush warned that clashes would escalate in death-soaked Iraq in the coming weeks. Analysts said all this pointed to an extremely violent summer ahead for the volatile region.

Still, the Bible calls the Middle East the center or God’s world—the place where human life began, and where the final climactic battle of history will take place. As shock waves pound the region with ever greater intensity, it is imperative to recall that Jesus and many other Hebrew prophets foretold that such upheaval would featuring prominently during the prophesied “end of days.” But as the seers also revealed, such messianic “birth pangs” will ultimately result in the coming of God’s peaceful rule over all the earth! “And the Lord will be King over all the earth. In that day, the Lord will be one and His name one!” (Zechariah 14:9).  

DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist.  Born and raised in the United States, he has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.  After studying at a Bible College in his native Pacific Northwest, Dolan graduated from a broadcasting journalism school in 1976. He subsequently worked for the Moody radio network's Spokane affiliate. His Mideast media career began in 1982 when he began serving as news director at the Voice of Hope radio station in war-torn southern Lebanon. From April 1984, he reported from Jerusalem for the Washington DC-based IMS news network, and later for CBN's Middle East Television (METV) in Jerusalem. Dolan became a regular reporter for the CBS radio network in early 1988, soon after the first Palestinian uprising broke out. He also covered the massive immigration of Soviet Jews to Israel, the 1991 Gulf War, and many other stories during the 1990's, along with the new Palestinian attrition war that began in September 2000. He is currently reporting once again for the Moody radio network, and via videophone for the American LeSea television network, which now operates METV. David Dolan is also a well-known international speaker. He has appeared at many Christian and secular universities, international conferences, Jewish synagogues and forums, and before many churches and civic groups. He has toured over 20 times in the United States, and has frequently visited Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Holland, Singapore and Australia. He has also spoken in Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, Hungary, Austria, New Zealand and Hong Kong. He also addresses visiting tour groups in Israel and foreign students studying in Jerusalem. Along with US Senator John Ashcroft and two other recipients, Dolan was awarded an honorary Doctor of Letters degree from Louisiana Baptist University in 1998. Dolan's 1991 book, HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND, (Thomas Nelson) was an instant international success. It was quickly translated into eight other languages. The latest updated version-the forth edition-was released by Broadman & Holman in 2003. His well-received end-time novel, also translated into other languages, appeared in 1997 under the title THE END OF DAYS. He also authored a combination current events-biblical prophecy book titled ISRAEL IN CRISIS:WHAT LIES AHEAD? Over 10,000 copies were sold in the weeks after it was released in November 2000. An updated edition, published in late 2001 by Baker/Revell, is currently in its forth printing. As with his previous books, ISRAEL IN CRISIS has been lauded by many readers for its valuable political and biblical insights and information. All of Dolan's books are available at a special discount price on this Web site. Click Here for more details. To schedule David Dolan to speak in North America , contact Bette Laughrun toll-free at 800-728-1779, or via Your Israel Connection. To have him speak elsewhere, or to share with tour groups in Israel or for other information, click here to contact us.