REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS INFLUENCE GROWS IN IRAN

On March 8, 2011, Ayatollah Kani, 80, was elected Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the body that will elect the next Supreme Leader of Iran.  The election was called after the incumbent, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, fearing defeat, withdrew his candidacy, stating that he did not want to hurt the standing of the assembly. Rafsanjani served as President of Iran from 1989 to 1997. In 2005 he ran for a third term in office but lost to rival Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Relations between Rafsanjani and members of the assembly who support Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have sharply deteriorated over the last year. During the 2007 elections for chairmanship of the assembly, Rafsanjani, beat Ayatollah Jannati, a hardliner even by Iranian standards.  The defeat of Jannati, was perceived as a blow that could weaken Ahmadinejad. Yet today the star of Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guards continues to rise, and the power base and influence of Rafsanjani, who could still constitute a challenge to the current regime, is fading.

Rafsanjani is regarded by the West as a "good conservative" - someone who can initiate changes. Since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, he has been trying to contain the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guards. The division between him and the Guards under the leadership of Ahmadinejad continues to widen. Today, the Revolutionary Guards are gradually completing their takeover of Iran, as Rafsanjani and other senior figures of the first generation of the revolution are being pushed out of positions of power.

Despite growing international sanctions and attention, the Iranian regime is still confident enough to act against those who played a central role in the history of revolutionary Iran. The Revolutionary Guards have built up their role to "guard the Revolution and its achievements." Ahmadinejad's presidency represents a golden opportunity for the organization, which is attempting to recreate in practice the first days of the revolution - expressing revolutionary passion through the support of terrorist groups and "liberation movements" in the Middle East and beyond.

Developments in the Middle East are allowing the Guards to expand their influence among Islamist elements in other Arab countries. The Guards are able to activate sleeper cells in the Arab countries and increase assistance to the rising Islamist elements. This is at a time when the opponents of such a policy are getting weaker. The growing self-confidence within the Revolutionary Guards is displayed in its continuous weapons shipments to terror groups in Africa and the Middle East. It also signals the strengthening of Iran's strategic cooperation with Syria.

Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guards are seeking to turn Iran into a player that can influence global events. Weapons smuggling and drug trafficking present opportunities for changing the playing field. The missions undertaken by the Revolutionary Guards are changing the organization and its role in Iranian society. The Revolutionary Guards are developing into an economic-military and political powerhouse in Iran. All those who were able to oppose this process have been pushed aside in order for the Revolutionary Guards to slowly complete their takeover of Iran.

Source: International Christian Embassy Jerusalem